This Thursday, Scotland will hold a referendum on independence. The conventional wisdom holds that the vote will be close, but that the No vote will carry the day. While the UK government does have final say on constitutional matters (and thus on independence), everyone seems to assume that it will honor the results of the referendum.

This entire situation highlights the absurdity of making important decisions through majority-rules direct democracy. Consider the possible outcomes. If the vote is 52 percent Yes to 48 percent No, then 48 percent of the populace, some two and a half million souls,¹ will find their links to what they consider their home country severed. They will be forced, against their will, to either physically leave their homes to remain within the UK or try to mentally and emotionally locate themselves in a new political unit that they do not want or recognize as their own.

If, on the other hand, the vote is 52 percent No to 48 percent Yes, then you’ve got a similarly massive portion of the nation who actively wants not to be part of it—and not at some future point, but as soon as possible. No nation can tolerate that state of affairs for long with tranquility unless we assume that the no voters are just breezy and faddish. I’m not willing to believe that.

Surely, for such an important question, fifty-plus-one doesn’t cut it. Blindly following the referendum when public opinion is divided so evenly can only lead to a sense of disaffected displacement for the losing side. Whatever the economic effects,² the social and psychological effects of feeling disconnected from your home country matter. A shared culture, a common historical heritage, a sense of community with your fellow citizens—these are all things that my fellow libertarians like to wave away as tribalism, but that are in fact necessary parts of forming a human identity.

As a matter of practicality the best result on Thursday is a No vote, not because I’m convinced the Scotland should remain part of the UK, but because it’s a push. The Scots can gain independence in the future much more easily than they can regain union. But that extra time only matters if the Scots use it to build a real consensus. Perhaps that means that the UK government can do a better job identifying and satisfying the concerns of those who favor independence. Maybe it means that the pro-Independence side can do a better job persuading their fellow Scots that an independent Scotland is not only attainable and advisable, but a place that will still be their home.

But that consensus has to be established before either side can claim a legitimate victory. Thursday’s referendum can only reveal the contours of the problem, not the wisest solution. In fact, it has probably already told us all it can.